The 2024 US presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump on June 27 provides key insights into the next course of US policy and its ripple impact on the world.
For Bangladesh, a nation connected to global trade dynamics and heavily dependent on remittances, the implications of either candidate’s victory extend far beyond diplomatic relationships, significantly shaping its economic, financial, business, development, and investment landscape, along with wider effects on immigration, foreign relations, and global stability.
When Biden entered the stage, he appeared sick and somewhat off-balance; it could be because of his flu, as the White House mentioned. Trump, however, came in looking strong and focused. Even though President Biden struggled with a weak voice and some moments of unclear thinking, his strong points made clear reasons why Donald Trump should not be president again.
While people might think Biden, 81, might be too old from his way of speaking, a closer look at his points, counterarguments, historical references, and policies showed determination and clarity.
Trump, as well, came down heavily on Biden with resilient, clear, and sharp counterarguments that sometimes made Biden look weak, showcasing his resoluteness on policies should he become president again.
These policies by both competitors of the upcoming US presidential election and the overall tone of the debate will undoubtedly shape the future trajectory of US foreign and domestic policies, leaving us to consider: what lies ahead for Bangladesh if either wins the presidency?
Economic policies and trade
During the debate, President Biden emphasised his administration’s commitment to reducing inflation, supporting workers, and boosting manufacturing through significant investments. He highlighted the creation of 15,000 new jobs and 800,000 new manufacturing jobs under his tenure.
Biden’s focus on reducing the cost of prescription medications, making housing more affordable, and capping rents to prevent corporate greed aims to stabilise the US economy, which could positively impact global trade partners like Bangladesh.
Biden's support for economic fairness, exemplified by his proposal for a $10,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers, indicates a focus on equitable financial policies.
Biden’s commitment to lowering everyday expenses, including a reduction in the cost of prescription drugs and housing, could lead to increased disposable income for American consumers.
This, in turn, might boost demand for goods from Bangladesh, particularly in the garment sector. Additionally, Biden’s plan to strengthen the manufacturing and technology sectors may create opportunities for skilled professionals from Bangladesh, thereby improving economic relationships between the two countries.
Moreover, reducing housing costs, building 2 million new units, and capping rents to prevent corporate greed from taking over can significantly impact the domestic US housing market and potentially benefit Bangladesh.
A key beneficiary of a stronger US housing market could be Bangladesh's textile and garment sector. As the US embarks on constructing 2 million new housing units, the demand for home textiles such as curtains, bed linens, and upholstery is likely to increase. Bangladesh, a major exporter of these goods, stands to gain from this increased demand, providing a significant boost to the sector.
Furthermore, Bangladeshi families living in the US would benefit directly from reduced housing costs and rent caps. This would improve their financial stability and quality of life, allowing them to save more and potentially send more remittances back to Bangladesh, further supporting the Bangladeshi economy.
Former President Trump, on the other hand, advocated for significant tax cuts, fewer regulations, and strong tariff policies. He proposed imposing a 10 per cent tariff on all goods entering the US, aiming to lower the trade deficit and protect American jobs.
However, this could negatively impact Bangladesh, which heavily relies on textile exports to the US. Such tariffs might make Bangladeshi products less competitive in the US market, leading to significant financial losses and economic instability for Bangladesh.
On the other hand, Trump’s tax reductions and fewer regulations might stimulate US economic growth, leading to increased consumer spending. This could sustain demand for Bangladeshi products, albeit in smaller quantities due to the higher tariffs.
Additionally, Trump’s push for energy self-reliance and reduced business taxes may encourage more US companies to seek affordable production locations such as Bangladesh, although this depends on broader global political issues.
Investment and corporate taxes
Biden plans to raise taxes on wealthy corporations to fund community programs and reduce the national debt. He argued that if billionaires paid 24 or 25 per cent in taxes, the government could collect $500 billion over ten years.
Higher corporate taxes might reduce the profitability of US companies, making them more cautious about their global investments. This could impact the level of investment flowing into Bangladesh by reducing capital available for expansion, leading to more cautious investment strategies, and potentially shifting focus to other regions with more favourable tax environments.
Consequently, local businesses in Bangladesh that rely on foreign capital for growth might face slower economic progress and fewer opportunities.
On the other hand, Trump’s continued tax reductions and easing regulations might encourage more US firms to invest overseas, including in Bangladesh, which could bring more foreign direct investment, technology sharing and jobs.
Trump argued that the tax cuts spurred the greatest economy ever seen just before Covid, and even after. If he becomes president and continues to reduce taxes for companies, it might encourage more US firms to invest abroad, bringing more foreign direct investment into Bangladesh and aiding its economic growth.
Climate and environmental policies
Biden’s strong stance on climate change might push Bangladesh’s industries to meet tougher environmental standards, leading to higher production costs but also promoting eco-friendly methods.
These changes might help the environment but could challenge current production practices in Bangladesh. Biden highlighted his administration’s achievements in passing the most extensive climate change laws ever, indicating a significant focus on combating climate change, which is crucial for Bangladesh due to its vulnerability to climate-related disasters.
Trump, however, prioritised economic growth over environmental concerns, stating that the Paris Agreement was a financial burden on the US. His approach might ease conditions for Bangladeshi exporters for now but could slow down global efforts to combat climate change. This could have long-term negative impacts on Bangladesh, which is already facing severe consequences of climate change.
Immigration policies
Biden aims to make immigration policies more humane by increasing the number of border guards and asylum workers. He has worked hard for a bipartisan agreement to reform immigration, which could potentially help more Bangladeshi people move to the US, increasing the remittance money sent back home.
Remittances are essential for many families in Bangladesh, as they support daily living expenses, education, healthcare, and overall quality of life, thereby playing a crucial role in the country's economic stability and growth.
Conversely, Trump’s tough immigration rules, such as his plan for mass deportations, present a very different picture. He stated he would conduct "the largest domestic deportation operation in American history."
These policies might affect the Bangladeshi community in the US, causing a drop in remittances sent home and increased worry among immigrants.
If he executes his mass deportation plans, a significant number of immigrants will return to Bangladesh, exacerbating the already high unemployment rate and placing further strain on the country's economy.
This could strain the economic relationship between the two countries and reduce the financial support that remittances provide to Bangladesh’s economy.
Foreign relations, diplomacy, and handling war
Biden's approach to foreign policy emphasises alliances and multilateral cooperation. He has worked to strengthen ties with NATO and other international partners. This approach could benefit Bangladesh by promoting a stable international order and encouraging investment in developing economies.
Biden’s focus on diplomacy and building alliances might create opportunities for Bangladesh to engage in more international trade agreements and collaborations.
Biden’s handling of the Ukraine-Russia war demonstrates his commitment to supporting allies and maintaining global stability. His administration has provided significant aid to Ukraine, emphasising the importance of standing up to aggression. This stance could help maintain a stable global order, which is beneficial for international trade and economic stability, including for countries like Bangladesh.
However, the support for Ukraine, while promoting global stability, has also led to increased military spending and economic sanctions against Russia, which have disrupted global supply chains and increased energy prices.
As an energy-importing country, Bangladesh has faced higher costs for energy imports, affecting its industrial activities and overall economic stability.
Trump’s foreign policy has been characterised by a more unilateral approach, prioritising America’s interests first. His administration's focus on renegotiating trade deals and imposing tariffs has sometimes strained relationships with traditional allies.
For Bangladesh, this approach might result in less favourable trade conditions and reduced diplomatic support.
Trump’s stance on the Ukraine-Russia war was less supportive of Ukraine compared to Biden. During the debate, he criticised the amount of money spent on supporting Ukraine and suggested that the war could have been avoided under his leadership.
This approach might lead to a more unpredictable global political environment, which could negatively impact Bangladesh’s trade and economic stability.
However, a reduction in US involvement in the Ukraine conflict might lead to lower military expenditures and fewer economic sanctions, potentially stabilising global markets and reducing energy costs.
This could have a positive impact on Bangladesh’s economy by lowering the cost of imports and stabilising industrial production.
The 2024 US presidential debate highlighted significant policy differences between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, each with potential implications for Bangladesh’s economy, foreign relations, and overall stability.
Biden’s policies might provide a more stable and fair economic environment but with stricter regulations, while Trump’s strategies could lead to quicker investments and fewer regulations but might create an unstable economy and more trade barriers.
Bangladesh’s ability to be proactive and adaptive will be key in dealing with these changes and maintaining steady economic growth and stability amidst the evolving global economic landscape.
Whether through increased international cooperation under Biden or navigating a more protectionist US under Trump, Bangladesh must remain vigilant and strategic in its approach to international relations and economic policies.
Ultimately, the outcome of the US presidential election will have far-reaching consequences not only for the US but also for countries like Bangladesh, which are deeply interconnected with the global economy.
The policies and actions of the next US president will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Bangladesh’s economic development, trade, and international relations.
The author is a journalist currently working at The Business Post
