As the 12th National Parliamentary Elections approach on January 7, the political landscape in Bangladesh is once again set ablaze with debates, statements, and as well as preparations. The ruling Awami League and its allies are actively engaging in the election process, but a shadow of uncertainty looms as the opposition, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), maintains a stance against elections under the incumbent government though the charter assigns the outgoing government to conduct the polls. The crux of the matter lies in the demand for a non-partisan neutral caretaker government by the BNP, a demand that harks back to historical precedents.
Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader in a statement on January 26 emphasised that the caretaker government system is a settled issue by the apex court, affirming that elections will proceed according to the constitution. In contrast, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir in a press briefing after a meeting with the leaders of the 12-party alliance a few days ago declared that the people will not accept any election under Sheikh Hasina's government, setting the stage for a contentious electoral period.
Amid such a political scenario, the national election is going to be held. The polls will be held under the ruling Awami League government and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will continue as the head of government during the election. But the BNP is opposing it and in that case, it might refrain from contesting in the polls and wage an all-out movement to stop the election.
Historically, opposition parties in Bangladesh have often demanded elections under a caretaker government, leading to boycotts until their demands are met. BNP's boycott of the 1986 parliamentary elections, the subsequent resignations of Awami League parliamentarians in 1987, and the dissolution of the parliament by President Hussain Muhammad Ershad illustrate a tumultuous political history. In 1991, a caretaker government supervised the fifth national parliament election, providing a template for future electoral processes.
Then in 1996, the opposition including the Awami League wanted elections under a caretaker government, but the BNP did not accept it and arranged elections under its government. However, the government did not last and had to amend the constitution and introduce a provision of a caretaker government within a few days. The seventh parliamentary elections were held in June 1996 under a caretaker government.
Awami League won the polls and formed the government.The year 2001 witnessed another election under a caretaker government, yet BNP, despite winning 193 seats, formed the government with Jamaat. Political dynamics shifted again in 2006 when President Iajuddin Ahmed formed a caretaker government after BNP's term concluded.
Despite objections, the Awami League, including Ershad as a partner of the Grand Alliance, submitted nomination papers to participate in the elections scheduled to be held on January 22, 2007, following the announced schedule and acknowledging Iajuddin's caretaker government.
However, when the returning officer cancelled the nomination papers of crucial Grand Alliance leaders, including Ershad, during the scrutiny process, the Awami League opted to withdraw all nomination papers, affecting every member of the Grand Alliance. This decision marked the beginning of an extensive movement, demanding both the cancellation of the election and the dissolution of the caretaker government.
Simultaneously, five advisers of the caretaker government resigned, expressing a loss of confidence in President and Chief Adviser Iajuddin regarding election transparency and impartiality. As a result of this growing political crisis, the military intervened, leading to the swearing-in of Fakhruddin Ahmed as the chief adviser to the caretaker government in January 2007.
Under this caretaker government, the 9th National Parliament election took place in December 2008, with all parties participating. The Grand Alliance, led by the Awami League, emerged victorious, and both domestic and foreign observers attested to the fairness of the elections.
In 2014, the subsequent national election took place, with the BNP and other opposition parties opting to boycott the electoral process. This decision followed the passage of the Constitution Amendment Bill in 2011, which abolished the caretaker government system. Despite the BNP and its allies initiating a movement to reintroduce the electoral caretaker government, the boycott failed to prevent the election. The Awami League-led Grand Alliance completed its five-year term, securing a majority of more than two-thirds.
On the anniversary of the previous election on January 5, 2015, the BNP initiated a violent movement, including a 92-day blockade-hartal, demanding the resignation of the government. After 92 days, the movement became inactive without any official announcement. Subsequently, in 2018, the 11th National Parliament election took place. The Awami League secured power for the third consecutive term after winning this election.
While all parties, including the BNP, participated in the 2018 election, concerns about transparency surfaced, with a wide range of complaints. Analysts, however, believed that there was no possibility of a change in government during the 2018 elections. The absence of a strong opposition candidate capable of assuming the role of prime minister played a significant role in shaping the election's outcome.
Besides this, in constituencies where opposition candidates, including those from the BNP, held a strong position, the Grand Alliance candidates were unwilling to accept defeat. On the other hand, the opposition did not fully leverage its capacity during the election. Consequently, in several constituencies, ruling candidates took advantage of the situation, leading to allegations of election rigging and subsequent victories.
The upcoming 12th National Parliamentary election unfolds against a backdrop of anticipation and uncertainty. As January 7 approaches, it is evident that numerous parties will partake in the electoral process. However, the stance of the BNP remains unclear. A repetition of past mistakes, such as boycotting the election, would be a misstep for the BNP. If the BNP refrains from participating, it may resort to movements like strike-blockade programmes.
The crucial question of whether it is feasible to obstruct elections and topple the government through strike-blockade tactics finds its answer in the outcomes of previous unsuccessful endeavours before and after the 10th national elections. BNP leaders ought to reconsider their strategy, recognizing that the same approach may not yield success this time, as it did not in the past. Election analysts contend that the likelihood of a repeat of the 2018 scenario is low if the BNP actively participates in the upcoming election.
For the BNP to secure success, it is imperative to engage vigorously in constituencies where opposition parties, including the BNP, hold a strong position. Analysts believe that this presents a realistic opportunity for all political parties, including the BNP, to embrace.
BNP’s electoral symbol sheaf of paddy carries significance. In the 2014 elections, the BNP failed to capitalise on the opportunity, likened to neglecting the harvest of paddy. The pressing question now is whether the BNP will step into the electoral arena with determination to reap the political benefits. If they do, the BNP's proactive participation will undoubtedly be acknowledged across all circles, leaving no room for doubt.
