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With the mercury rising, a crisis of electricity is also escalating throughout the country, with long hours of load-shedding occurring in various districts since last week. With Eid-ul-Fitr just days away, fear of further deterioration of the situation is growing among people, alongside the daily electricity demand, if the weather does not improve.
Bangladesh Meteorological Department’s forecast says that although the temperature may drop slightly on Sunday and Monday, it may spike in the next five days. As a result, there is a possibility of hot weather becoming the spoilsport during the Eid festivities.
Moreover, hundreds of thousands of people leaving the major cities for their village homes may fall victim to power outages during the Eid holidays.
On Saturday, electricity fluctuations occurred for six to seven hours amidst the ongoing heatwave, where temperatures soared between 36-38 degrees Celsius. The ramifications of these electricity shortages are beginning to reverberate across sectors, impacting businesses, commerce, and crucially, irrigation.
According to Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) reports, the national electricity demand was 14,598 megawatts (MW) on Friday. However, with production lagging, load-shedding measures of 1,225 MW were implemented. In the Dhaka Division alone, where the demand reached 5,457 MW, load-shedding of 225 MW was observed.
On Friday, the highest generation was 12,401 MW in the daytime and 14245 MW in the evening peak hours.
BPDB officials said that efforts are underway to maintain supply in Dhaka and industrial areas amid the increase in temperature. In Dhaka, distribution companies DPDC and DESCO supply the most electricity. However, reports of load-shedding are still coming from various places in Dhaka.
Despite lower electricity demand on the weekly holiday than any working day, Saturday started with a load-shedding of 1,636 MW to serve a demand of 14,100 MW.
These power cuts started at 1am when electricity demand always remains very low. Official statistics of the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB) revealed that the country was generating 12,387 MW in the early hours of Saturday (at 1am).
PGCB data showed that the country generated 12,670 MW at noon against a demand for 14,000 MW on Saturday. The highest demand was projected to be 15,300 MW in the evening peak hours and 13,400 MW in the day peak time.
Officials apprehend, that with the day progressing amid the sweltering heat of summer, the extent of load-shedding will increase and the power supply situation will aggravate further.
In the previous week, the last working day on Thursday, the highest load-shedding was recorded to be 1,824 MW.
The extent of load-shedding may cross 2,000 MW this week, BPDB officials said. They noted that the situation is unlikely to improve until the gas supply is increased to the power plants.
Rural areas main victims
Meanwhile, mostly rural areas have been the victims of the power cuts as the authorities concerned are pursuing a policy to avoid load-shedding in urban areas, mostly in large cities, including the capital Dhaka. This is being done to avoid public wrath, officials said.
Bangladesh Rural Electrification Board, responsible for rural electrification, has found itself grappling with a 25 per cent deficit in electricity supply compared to demand in rural areas. Consequently, rural regions are enduring daily load-shedding cycles lasting five to six hours.
Talking to The Business Post, BPDB Member (Production) Khandakar Mokammel Hossain remained cautiously optimistic amidst the turmoil and stressed ongoing efforts to bridge the demand-supply gap.
Coal remains pivotal in maximising production capacity, with plans for increased gas supply upon the LNG terminal's operationalisation. Instructions have been issued to bolster production at oil-fired plants, buoying hopes for a swift resolution, he said.
However, currently, electricity production capacity has increased to almost double the demand and power tariffs have increased repeatedly. Despite this, the government's subsidy increases every year and uninterrupted electricity supply is not guaranteed. Continuous electricity supply still depends on nature. When the temperature is low, everyone gets electricity, but when the temperature rises, people suffer from load-shedding.
According to Power Division calculation, if load-shedding is done for one hour throughout the country, 976 MW of electricity can be saved. In line with this calculation, for a deficit of 2,000 MW, load-shedding needs to be done for more than two hours.
Due to power generation shortages, load-shedding has increased in Sylhet for almost a week. Although there has been two-hour load-shedding for several days, it has been reported that there has now intermittent load-shedding throughout the day in villages since last week.
Villages, particularly in Dinajpur, bear the brunt of prolonged outages, with residents saying they are enduring five to six-hour-long blackouts amid scorching temperatures daily amid excessive heat.
Neighbouring Naogaon mirrors Dinajpur’s plight, with electricity scarcity impeding daily life and agricultural activities in 11 upazilas. From April 1, a staggering 40 per cent shortfall in electricity supply compared to demand has exacerbated rural woes.
The spectre of widespread load-shedding is also looming large over Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj, Mymensingh and Netrokona.
Approximately half of the nation's gas-based power plants are currently lying dormant amidst the energy crisis, producing a mere 11,500 MW last week against a 15,000 MW capacity, reports BPDB.
Besides coal-fired plants, yielding 4,300 MW, and oil-fired counterparts, generating 2,900 MW, the grapple with mounting production costs is still ongoing. Strained by economic constraints, private power plant owners default on bill payments to BPDB, burdening the government with unpaid dues anew.
BPDB sources highlighted the reluctance of many power plants to resume operations due to looming economic uncertainties. Consequently, apprehensions mount over heightened load-shedding in the impending summer months.
Meanwhile, Petrobangla officials said the Summit Group's LNG terminal failed to resume operation on April 3 as per schedule.
"Now, we hope, it may be able to commission and resume operation on April 8," M Kamruzzaman, director of operation and mining, told UNB.
He also informed that if Summit's LNG terminal resumes operation, it will add 500 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD) gas to the national grid. The LNG terminal went into routine maintenance in the first week of March.
Petrobangla statistics show the country's gas supply was 2,640 MMCFD on Thursday against the demand for more than 4,000 MMCFD.
