Home ›› 24 Jun 2022 ›› Special Supplement
All lights are on the Padma Bridge. This bridge is yet another milestone of Bangladesh’s confident journey towards economic freedom. It also reflects the fighting spirit which was so prudently instilled in the mindset of his people by the Father of the Nation.
The day of Padma Bridge’s inauguration is destined to be another golden day like the 7th March 1971 or the 10th January 1972 when the whole nation united under the courageous leadership of Bangabandhu to first pledge to fight for liberation, and then to celebrate the freedom.
Bangabandhu deeply believed in people’s aspirations and participation. So, he could start the journey for economic freedom literally from the ashes.
Back in 1973, World Bank’s Vice President Cargill met Bangabandhu in his office and reminded him that his people will be starving without adequate food aid if he did not agree to his proposal to share equally with Pakistan the repayment burden of the international assistance in the pre-1971 days.
Bangabandhu declined this unjust proposal as most of that aid went to West Pakistan. He said his people would eat grass if the international community pushed this unjust proposal.
Mr Cargill went back to the negotiation table of the Aid Consortium for Bangladesh and had to agree to a reasonable resolution as directed by Bangabandhu. To him, self-respect was more important than anything else.
No doubt, he started medium and long-term planning for “Sonar Bangla” despite standing on the debris of the 1971 war, riding on the people’s aspirations for economic freedom.
Indeed, he could see far and steered the nation towards the goal of prosperity defying all challenges, man-made or natural. And the country is still benefiting from this legacy of his astute leadership which has been relayed to the daughter HPM Sheikh Hasina.
The unfortunate Padma Bridge episode came as a boon for Bangladesh as it provided an opportunity for the leadership that she inherited, that legacy of standing high keeping her backbone straight defying misjudgment of the international development agency, which raised unsubstantiated allegations of corruption around the project that was not even formally initiated.
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The Technical Committee headed by late National Professor Jamilur Reza Chowdhury did not finish its evaluation of the bids of the international contractors when this demeaning accusation was flagged.
Later, the Canadian Court gave a verdict that nothing inappropriate happened in the project activities. It was, therefore, not surprising that the Bangladesh premier, like her father, declared that her government would go for implementation of the dream project with its own resources.
Smelling the misdeeds of the conspirators who must have vitiated the minds of the global lenders, the Premier stood like a rock and decided to move forward without any hesitation.
I happened to be near her when she made this historic decision.
We from the central bank gave the leadership enough comfort that with bulging foreign exchange reserves and increasing contributions from the remitters who were working hard in different parts of the world Bangladesh would be able to provide the necessary foreign exchange support in the changed context.
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I was amazed by the extent of the interest among remitters for this project who were prepared to send money from abroad into the Padma Bridge Account, if formally opened.
We appreciated their patriotic zeal and reassured them that the banking sector was strong enough to take this burden on its shoulder. Of course, this strength of the sector originated from the steady flow of remittances from abroad and stunning performance of our RMGs.
Agrani Bank, with necessary regulatory guidance from the Bangladesh Bank, has been consistently providing all the foreign exchange support to the project. I am sure that the bank will be able to pay the remaining bills.
If there are any shortfalls, the central bank will be standing by the bank with foreign exchange support from the reserve.
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I am, therefore, not surprised to see the euphoria around the inauguration of the Padma Bridge. People from all walks of life are awaiting the launch of the bridge, which has also been a technological feat of historical dimensions.
Second only to the Amazon in terms of speed of the currents, the River Padma had to be tamed for the construction of the bridge, which was very challenging. The deepest piling of pillars (of length of 128 meters) had to be executed in the bedrock of a “moody” river with one of the largest customised hammers imported from Germany.
Over and above, the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the flow of construction for many months. Many workers and engineers were also infected by the Covid-19 virus. Defying all these challenges, the bridge is now ready for the opening.
Emotions are running high, particularly among the people from 21 districts of southwestern Bangladesh, who remained isolated from the rest of Bangladesh including the capital due to this mighty river.
Apart from this euphoria, the Padma Bridge deserves a deeper look in terms of the huge impact it is likely to make on the regional and national economies. Of course, this bridge will connect the 21 districts of southern Bangladesh with the other parts of the country, particularly the capital city Dhaka.
People from these districts will cross the bridge in minutes and participate in all the national activities like others without any physical barriers. The freight trucks will no longer have to wait for days in ferry ghats to cross the mighty Padma.
The international trade, particularly with the neighbouring countries, will get a boost due to seamless transport connectivity, which will be facilitated by the bridge. We have already seen how such connectivity helps raise the productivity and size of the economy after the Bangabandhu Bridge was constructed over the Jamuna River.
The economic rate of return of the Bangabandhu Bridge as projected by the development partners was proved wrong and the entire northern part of Bangladesh has been deriving unprecedented socio-economic benefits from the connectivity facilitated by this bridge.
This poverty-stricken part of the country witnessed spurt in regional economic growth and Monga (the case of seasonal extreme poverty) has literally been wiped out of the region. The country is now eagerly awaiting the repeat play of this economic resurgence in the southern part of Bangladesh as well after the inauguration of the Padma Bridge.
With these perspectives, let us now focus more on the economic impact of this bridge on the regional and national economies. Surely, the economic benefits will flow not only in the southern part but also throughout the country due to multiple effects.
Estimated national GDP may go up by 2 per cent (some say 1.26 per cent). The regional GDP may rise by 3.5 per cent. The economic Rate of Return of the project will be 18-21 percent, according to the experts.
The entire cost of the project may be realised by 31 years or even earlier. Over and above, the social and cultural benefits of this connectivity will continue to flow seamlessly for many years to come.
The bridge will significantly improve the efficiency of the road transport development that has already taken place in the southern region by bridging it to the mainstream Bangladesh, particularly its capital Dhaka and its adjoining industrial townships like Gazipur, Narayanganj and Narsingdi.
This part of the country was deprived of efficient connectivity due to huge ferry queues arising out of the disrupted navigability of the Padma and extreme weather conditions. The huge man-hour and economic loss due to above constraints will disappear with the opening of the bridge.
This will certainly add value to our GDP. With the operationalisation of the railway, the connectivity will further improve adding at least one percentage more to the country’s GDP.
The connectivity of roads, railways and energy transportation will further ease international trade with India, Nepal, and Bhutan by linking Bangladesh to Trans-Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway.
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The BBIN sub-regional economic cooperation will certainly get a boost. The possibility of improved network and connectivity has already boosted the initiation of economic zones, high-tech parks, and private industrial enterprises in the region.
With the launch of the bridge, there will be better coordination between all the seaports of the country reducing the overburdening pressure on the Chittagong port and creating higher efficiency in port management.
Also, there is a real possibility in the growth of eco parks, exclusive economic zones, and marine drives in the coastal belt, sea aquariums, international stadiums and convention halls, hotels, resorts, shopping-malls in southern Bangladesh particularly in and around Payra and Mongla ports following the opening of the bridge.
There will be spurt in both ship-breaking and ship-building industries in Khulna and Barishal where the land prices have already started soaring up. With better transport connectivity, agriculture, SMEs and tourism industry will be boosted in the region.
Tourists from Dhaka and abroad will flock to Kuakata, Bagerhat, the Sundarbans and Tungipara as they can reach these places in three to four hours. The time to reach Benapole will also be reduced by about half, accelerating greater movements of tourists across the borders.
Southern Bangladesh – with five percent higher level of poverty – will experience 1.01 per cent reduction in regional poverty, leading to 0.84 per cent fall in national poverty.
There will be faster diversification of businesses in the southwestern region maximizing farm and non-farm growth possibilities along with increased saline resistant maize and wheat, dairy
and fish processing, shrimp production and related businesses, jute, and textiles. The improved supply chains along with better storage facilities will further boost the pace of industrialization benefitting from the lower cost of labour and transportation.
With the facilities of electricity, gas, and internet pipelines in place over the bridge, the southwestern districts will see a spurt of growth of small and medium enterprises, including the freelancers who will now get stable internet and other digital services.
All this will help create employment opportunities for about 1.2 per cent of the total labour force, providing at least 200,000 people with new jobs. This will ease pressure on Dhaka and other large cities, creating opportunities for growth of smaller and smarter cities (say like Bhanga), in addition to uplifting of older cities.
The people of coastal Bangladesh – battered by climate change – will not be condemned to live in the ugly urban centers of the big cities, as there will be plenty of opportunities for jobs in the economically revitalised smaller townships and economic zones not far from their homes.
More universities and hospitals will be built in this part of the country creating more opportunities for decentralized growth in skilled human resources.
The government will be well advised to provide additional incentives and regulatory support (say through prioritised startup programmes of the Bangladesh Bank and ICT Division) to the aspiring small and digital entrepreneurs of this region, who will be ready to contribute better towards Fourth Industrial Revolution.
In addition, there is a real possibility of growth of smart cities – similar to Shanghai – around the bridge along with many other complementary resorts and places of recreation.
The Padma Bridge will herald new confidence in the leadership in pursuing transformational infrastructure – particularly the transport related ones – to remove the gridlock of traffic both within Dhaka and Chittagong and throughout the country, spurring huge acceleration of trade and commerce leading to a higher growth of GDP.
Bangladesh is now in the same stage of development (aspiring to have 4,000 USD per capita GDP in about five years) as were its Southeast Asian peers like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand in the 1980s and 1990s.
Given its demographic advantages, rapid urbanization, speedy growth of tertiary educational enrolment and middle-income consumer groups, Bangladesh is now chasing for a double-digit growth to turn itself into an upper middle-income country in about a decade thriving on its robust domestic consumption which has been contributing about two-thirds of the current growth process.
And if Bangladesh can play its card well, infrastructures like the Padma bridge along with country-wide special economic zones will lead Bangladesh to its desired destiny of a developed country status by 2041. This bridge does, indeed, bridges many gaps and will take the nation nearer to that aspirational national milestone.
The author is a noted economist and a former Governor of the Bangladesh Bank. He can be reached at [email protected]
