Home ›› 23 Oct 2022 ›› Special Supplement
We achieved self-sufficiency in rice a few years ago. Recently, we have achieved self-sufficiency in fish, meat and eggs as well. Although the milk is lagging behind, the production rate is satisfactory.
However, there are many pros and cons to the achievements in agriculture and the economic benefits to the farmer. I am not saying anything about that. My point is how sustainable is this achievement of agriculture and whether it is enough to meet our future needs.
Bangladesh is an overpopulated country with a population density of 1,135/km2. The per capita cultivable land is merely 500 square meters (7.5 Katha) and is in a declining trend at about 0.4 per cent per year.
Urbanisation is in progress at a significant rate. So, it appears that the whole country would turn into a city within a few decades. As a result, the conventional agriculture now in practice would not remain sustainable in such an environment.
The population was a little more than seven crores after the independence war. In 2002, it doubled. According to BRRI, our total population in 2014 was 165 million. The population growth rate was 2.8 per cent in 1980, which came down to 1.22 per cent in 2014.
Thus, the growth rate tends to lean toward zero. Following this trend, the population will be 167.0 million in 2030 and 215.4 million in 2050. During the 100 years of our independence, this population will be 243.0 million.
This number will barely exceed 250 million during the turn of the century as the population growth rate will be almost constant. However, this is an expectation provided the women folk get conscious about their education, empowerment and employment.
Keeping in mind how to feed this population through sustainable rice production, BRRI scientists have made a future action plan titled Vision 2050 to move beyond achieving sustainable food security through rice production.
Satisfying the appetite of the growing population is the prime theme here.
According to them, the per capita clean-rice consumption was 148 kg a year in 2014. The per capita consumption is in a decreasing trend of 0.7 per cent each year. Thus by 2040, per capita consumption will reach the threshold level of 133 kg.
The estimated requirement of rice for human consumption was 24.1 million metric tonnes in 2014. For other purposes (seeds, animal feed, pre and post-harvest loss) an additional 25 per cent of clean rice is required, which was equivalent to 7.8 million metric tonnes in 2014.
So, the total requirement of clean rice in 2014 was 32.60 million metric tonnes. The total clean rice harvest in 2014 was 34.6 million metric tonnes. That is to say, around 2 million metric tonnes were ready for emergency use.
This amount (2 tonnes) or more must be ready for emergency use every year. Besides this, 2.2 million people are added to the existing population every year. So, the BRRI scientists recommended increasing the production of clean rice at the rate of 0.34 million metric tonnes per year up to 2050 or beyond.
So, the production preparation should be accordingly. As per the estimation, the country has to produce 47.2 million metric tonnes of clean rice (including rice used for non-consumption purpose) by 2050 provided the cultivable area remains fixed.
The requirement for clean rice would be 44.2 million metric tonnes, and the rest 2.6 million metric tonnes for emergency requirements (if required).
How is that possible? It is still difficult to halt the decreasing trend of arable land. In addition, there are so many related problems too.
For example, yet to break the yield ceiling, no effective mechanism of speedy dissemination of new variety(s), existing socio-economic limitations to reduce the knowledge and yield gap at the grassroots level and increasing biotic and abiotic impediments due to the increasing trend of global warming etc.
There are also water crises, loss of soil fertility, shortage of agri-labour, lack of farmers-friendly market management strategy, problems in farm mechanisation, rising prices of fertilisers in the world market, international tensions, etc.
Let us have some more examples – The annual clean rice deficit will be 16.1 million metric tonnes if the average yield per hectare remains static at 3.18 tonnes on the decreasing trend of cultivable rice land at 0.4 per cent.
The result is an extreme food crisis. To encounter all these problems, BRRI’s first thought was to increase the genetic gain of rice to encounter the crisis. The breaking of the yield barrier (to harvest at least 70 kg paddy equivalent to 40 kg clean rice per hectare, a day; irrespective of the growing season) is a must.
Then a 100-day variety in Aman will yield 7 tonnes per hectare and a 145-day variety in Boro season, 10 tonnes per hectare. For this, there must be location-specific varieties with tolerance to abiotic and biotic stresses.
The second thought was to apply relevant agronomic practices to harvest the maximum yield potential. The farmers often fail to harvest the highest yield potential of a good variety, even in a favourable environment, due to the lack of proper agronomic management.
Therefore, it is necessary to take care from seed to the seed of a crop with utmost agronomic and other relevant management practices. Then it is possible to harvest 90 per cent to 95 per cent of the genetic potential of a variety.
Another important fact is that the farmers should replace even a popular variety with a new one every 5-7 years.
Then, the pest pressure will be less. Soil health maintenance is of prime importance. It is necessary to uptake 13 kg of nitrogen, 3 kg of phosphorus and 13 kg of potash for every tonnes of rice.
Before planting a crop, it is necessary to know the residual amount of nutrients available in the land. It is wise to apply only the required amount of fertilizer to avoid wastage.
The main objective of “Rice Vision-2050 and beyond” was to satisfy the national need through increased rice production. In contrast, the objective of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) was to double productivity by 2030.
Doubling productivity here does not mean that the five tonnes yield per hectare should be 10 tonnes. That is not possible in this short time. Therefore, BRRI scientists have several recommendations to achieve the MDG.
Without going into details about them, if I say briefly! Such as increasing labour productivity per hectare is possible through agro-mechanisation, introducing farmers’ friendly market management, ensuring an affordable supply of inputs, provision of long-term storage facilities, timely export of surplus crops, and increasing the coverage of bio fortified rice.
They have also suggested the involvement of a public-private partnership in some cases of agricultural development. An Agricultural Commission is also under their recommendation to monitor the agro-market system.
Even after all these applications, it is difficult to say how sustainable rice production will be in the future. We have to take advantage of the latest application in digital technology in the field of farm mechanisation, biotechnology and nanotechnology.
To make rice production sustainable, an integrated approach with the other ancillary agricultural components is necessary. We have to join the 4th industrial revolution (IR).
Therefore, it is necessary to utilise all the opportunities like the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Big databases, Blockchain, and Robotics in all branches of agriculture in practice in the field, greenhouse, net house and courtyard from now on.
Emphasis given on rice or fruits or vegetables is not just enough. With these, there should be an integrated approach with livestock, fisheries, forestry and the environment to move forward with overall agriculture.
The planning to achieve sustainable food security will be in a model of balanced rice dishes. A balanced rice dish should contain the preparation of pulses, vegetables, fish, and meat proportionately.
There may be milk and eggs depending on the time and demand. This balanced diet could be the requisite source of carbohydrates, proteins, fats, fibre, vitamins, and antioxidants to maintain the personal and the national health.
Considering the national health demand, the scientists could design which crops should be given priority and to what extent to be cultivated in which area. The livestock and fishery could be included in the same approach. But we still have our substantial effort to maintain our self-sufficiency in rice.
So, most of our favourable and unfavourable lands are devoted to rice production. In contrast, we are importing wheat, maize, oil and pulses from outside that could be grown in Bangladesh.
To make a balance we have to share some rice lands with the other crops. Then, do we have to import rice then? I do not think so. The improved management will reduce the yield gap significantly to maintain the total rice production as per the plan.
Thus, we could reduce the burden of importing large quantities of wheat, maize, pulse and oils from outside.
Whatever I have discussed here is more about BRRI. I am sure the other organisations dealing with agriculture (including livestock and fishery) have their strategy also for attaining sustainable food security.
May I request them to have a look at the BRRI strategy? They might get some help from there.
Agriculture has only one revolution in its credit called the green revolution initiated in the mid-nineteenth century.
Because of its over-exploitative nature, the impact of the green revolution is not beyond controversy. So, scientists were trying to get a reasonable harvest through minimum disturbance to the environment which Dr Swaminathan (the father of the green revolution in India) called the Evergreen Revolution.
But that is yet to be achieved. But, till today, in the case of industry, there have been several industrial revolutions (IR) already since the innovation of the steam engine in 1784. It is expected that there will be some more by the turn of the century.
The 2nd IR began with the discovery of electricity in 1870 AD. The 3rd industrial revolution began around 1945 with the invention of the first digital computer (Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer).
And the 3rd began in 2011. One of the inventions of the 3rd IR was affordable computers, the Internet, and mobile phones and smartphones. It took on average 75 years to step from one phase to the other.
Do you think the recent digital technologies such as Artificial Intelligence will allow us so much time for the 5th IR! Certainly not. Maybe within a few years, you will hear that the 5th IR is going to start.
So, we have to make our way forward keeping pace with the upcoming IRs. Now is the time to create the right human resources to build our agricultural system as per the demand of the day. Universities and research institutes have to come out of conventional thinking.
Thus, we might have sustainable food security.
Dr Jiban Krishna Biswas is a former Director General of the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI).
