As stocks swing, investors bet choppy markets are here to stay

After a turbulent start to the year, investors are betting stock market volatility isn’t going away anytime soon.

While tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been the most recent driver of stock market gyrations, many expect inflation, uncertainty over monetary policy and stretched valuations to keep stirring asset prices this year, even if geopolitical fears subside.

The Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), often called Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” recently stood at 29, some 11 points higher than its historical median. Volatility futures at least eight months out show markets pricing increased stock market gyrations for much of the year.

Some 78 per cent of U.S. investment professionals responsible for fund selection and portfolio construction anticipate a rise in stock market volatility in 2022, according to a recently released Natixis Investment Managers Survey.

“This is not just Ukraine ... investors understand that this is not going to be an easy year, “ said Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions, which provides risk mitigation strategies for institutional investors.

Plunging stock markets in the wake of COVID-19 shattered a long period of placid trading and took the VIX to an all-time high of 85 in March 2020.

While the VIX has retreated as stocks more than doubled from their lows, it has not closed below last decade’s median level of 15 in more than two years, one of several signs pointing to expectations of more market swings to come.

“We don’t necessarily see new post-COVID lows for the VIX anytime soon,” said Max Grinacoff, equity derivative strategist at BNP Paribas, who has been recommending strategies such as put options spreads, which are designed to offer protection against volatility.

The S&P 500 is down 8 per cent this year after rising 27 per cent in 2021, while yields on the 10-year Treasury are up about 42 basis points year-to-date in anticipation that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy as it fights to tamp down inflation.

The gyrations haven’t been confined to stocks. The ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (.MOVE) - a one-month measure of expected volatility in Treasuries - stands near two year highs, while corporate bonds have also slid.

Elevated stock market valuations pose another danger if volatility persists, investors said.

The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio on a forward 12-month basis stands at 25.5, a 38 per cent premium to its 20-year average, according to Refinitiv Datastream.

The elevated valuations could make stocks more vulnerable to bad news, potentially increasing volatility, said Patrick Kaser, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management.