Rebound in oil prices gives world stocks a lift in holiday trade

A rebound in oil prices on concerns of tight supply gave world stocks a lift on Monday in a session hit by a US holiday.

Oil got a reprieve as lower output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia outweighed fears of a global recession.

“Oil fundamentals remain supportive,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodity research at ING.

“Clearly OPEC is still struggling to hit its agreed output levels,”

Output from the 10 members of OPEC in June fell 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 28.52 million bpd, off their pledged increase of about 275,000 bpd, a Reuters survey showed on Friday.

Brent crude steadied at $111.59, while US crude eased 12 cents to $108.32 per barrel. Both fell over $1 in early trade.

MSCI’s world equity index gained 0.25 per cent and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.14 per cent, after losing 1.8 per cent last week.

Global equities hit 18-month lows last month on anxiety about rising inflation and interest rates, but have since made minor gains.

“Some markets are starting to find their footing but there’s a lot of volatility right now,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management, pointing to risks from the release of key US non-farm payrolls data later this week.

European stocks rallied 0.7 per cent and Britain’s FTSE rose over 1 per cent, helped by gains in oil and gas companies.

Chinese blue chips closed 0.7 per cent higher, boosted by a 4.65 per cent surge in Chinese healthcare stocks. Cities in eastern China tightened COVID-19 curbs on Sunday amid new coronavirus clusters.

Japan’s Nikkei added 0.84 per cent, though South Korea dipped 0.22 per cent.

US S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures fell 0.7 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively, however, as recent soft US data suggested downside risks for this week’s June payrolls report. US stock markets are shut on Monday.

Technical recession

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s much watched GDP Now forecast slid to an annualised -2.1 per cent for the second quarter, implying the country was already in a technical recession.

The payrolls report on Friday is forecast to show jobs growth slowing to 270,000 in June, with average earnings slowing a touch to 5.0 per cent.

Minutes of the Fed’s June policy meeting on Wednesday are expected to sound hawkish, however, given the committee chose to hike rates by a super-sized 75 basis points.

The market is pricing in around an 85 per cent chance of another hike of 75 basis points this month and rates at 3.25-3.5 per cent by year end.

“But the market has also moved to price in an increasingly aggressive rate cut profile for the Fed into 2023 and 2024, consistent with a growing chance of recession,” said analysts at NAB.