Markets mostly up as focus turns to key US jobs report

Equity markets rose Thursday as traders fought to extend this week’s global rally, though concerns about the impact of a huge oil output cut on inflation tempered hopes that central banks could soon ease their rate hike campaigns.

The mood on trading floors has been a little lighter this week, sending equities surging and weighing on the dollar, after weak readings on US factory activity and job openings fed speculation that the Federal Reserve’s strict tightening drive was having an effect.

But confidence took a knock Wednesday from a better-than-expected read on private jobs hiring and a report showing the key services sector holding up more than expected.

The figures highlighted the resilience of the US economy in the face of multiple rate hikes and point to the long road ahead for the Fed in fighting decades-high inflation.

Fed officials have lined up for weeks to insist that they will not budge from lifting borrowing costs until prices are tempered -- even at the cost of a recession -- while some have warned traders not to expect any cuts next year.

After an increase in expectations of an imminent Fed pivot given the softer than expected US (factory data), the strength in the services (sector) not only eases concerns of an imminent US recession, it also refutes any notion that the Fed will look to take its foot off the tighten pedal any time soon, said National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril.

The latest US data came as OPEC and other major producers led by Russia decided to slash output by a massive two million barrels a day -- the biggest reduction since the pandemic struck.

Moscow said a possible price cap by the European Union on Russian crude would have a detrimental effect on the global oil sector, saying Moscow would not sell to countries that introduced it.

The news gave already elevated oil prices another leg up, with both contracts piling on more than one per cent Wednesday.

It also fuelled concerns that energy costs -- a major driver of the spike in global inflation since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine -- will drive higher again.

All the developments we have seen on the supply side at this point very much sets the stage for what we believe will be higher prices into the end of this year, Damien Courvalin, at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg Television. With this cut and the winter seasonal demand, inventories will continue to fall.

Still, crude edged up only slightly in Asia, and SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes said So far, the oil market appears to be priced to post OPEC+ perfection. The current WTI move should not impact US inflation significantly nor raise eyebrows at the Fed just yet.

All three main indexes on Wall Street ended in the red but stronger than earlier in the day but Asia fared better on Thursday. Tokyo, Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Taipei, Mumbai, Bangkok and Jakarta all rose again but Hong Kong dipped after blasting almost six per cent higher Wednesday.