Home ›› 14 Oct 2022 ›› Stock
Equities fell in Asia and the dollar maintained its strength Thursday ahead of the release of US inflation data that could determine the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
The release of the September report comes a day after minutes from the central bank’s latest policy meeting showed officials determined to win their battle against runaway prices by ramping up borrowing costs, though they did note the risk to the economy that posed.
Investors are growing increasingly worried that the strict monetary tightening campaign -- including three bumper rate hikes in succession -- will plunge the United States into recession.
While there are hopes for signs of a slowdown, traders have taken to the sidelines in case of more volatility.
On Wednesday, figures showed wholesale inflation rose a forecast-beating 0.4 per cent. After another day of losses on Wall Street, Asia was again in the red with Hong Kong, Singapore and Seoul off more than one per cent.
Tokyo, Shanghai, Mumbai, Wellington and Taipei were also off. London and Paris fell but Frankfurt edged up.
The big rise in core prices would appear to suggest that inflation is likely to be much stickier over the next few months that markets had originally been hoping, said CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson.
This, he added, was adding to the risk we could see the Federal Reserve not only be much more aggressive on rate hikes, but keep those rates higher for longer.
Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting suggested it will press on with a fourth straight 0.75 percentage-point hike next month, with policymakers noting a slowdown of growth and the jobs market would be required to tame inflation, adding that prices remained unacceptably high.
They also pointed out that prices had not yet responded to the previous tightening.
Bank officials had for months stuck to a line that they will continue ramping up rates and hold them until they were satisfied they have slain inflation.
But the minutes said several participants noted that, particularly in the current highly uncertain global economic and financial environment, it would be important to calibrate the pace of further policy tightening with the aim of mitigating the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook.
However, they said the cost of not doing enough to tackle prices outweighed the cost of doing too much.
The Fed remains purposefully driven to tighten monetary policy further into restrictive territory given the rather gradual cooling of economic activity and slow inflation response, said Gregory Daco, at Ernst & Young.
But added that the balance of risks is rapidly shifting. Elevated global economic and financial market uncertainty will make it essential for the Fed to calibrate its policy response.
They expect to lift rates to around 4.6 per cent in 2023, according to the median estimate -- from the current 3-3.25 per cent.
