Volatile rouble shows signs of recovery

The rouble pared early losses against the dollar to make tentative gains on Friday as a month-end tax period provided support for the Russian currency at the end of a volatile week, dominated by fears over the impact of oil and gas sanctions.

The rouble has lost around 6% this week and more than 11% so far in December, as an oil embargo and price cap that threaten Russia’s export revenue have come into force, but it just about remains the world’s best-performing major currency this year.

By 1359 GMT, the rouble was 0.3% stronger against the dollar at 68.79, pulling clear of its weakest mark since April 28 of 72.6325, hit in the previous session.

It had gained 1% to trade at 72.85 versus the euro and lost 0.1% against the yuan to 9.78 .

Yuan-rouble trading volumes exceeded 15 billion yuan on Thursday, a record on the Moscow Exchange.

Russia will start buying yuan on the market next year if oil and gas revenue meet expectations, two sources told Reuters, a report that was later confirmed by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

Siluanov said that a recovery in imports, which had collapsed as Western nations imposed harsh sanctions on Moscow over its actions in Ukraine, was also behind the currency’s slide, as well as what he termed the “moral impact” of oil and gas restrictions on traders.

“It is possible that the market has overestimated the negative effect of the imposed sanctions and will return to a more optimistic assessment of the rouble’s prospects,” said Veles Capital analyst Elena Kozhukhova.

Brent crude oil , a global benchmark for Russia’s main export, was up 2.4% at $83.0 a barrel.

The rouble should find a foothold next week when month-end taxes, which usually see Russian exporters convert FX revenue to pay local liabilities, are due.

“Intensified foreign currency sales by exporters in preparation for Monday’s tax period peak facilitated the correctional (move) in the exchange rate,” Bank of St Petersburg said in a review.

Russian stock indexes were mixed.

The dollar-denominated RTS index (.IRTS) was up 0.3% to 961.2 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was unchanged at 2,114.0 points.

A Reuters poll on Friday showed Russia will have limited room to cut interest rates in 2023 as inflation will remain above target as the economy contracts for a second straight year.