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Covid-19 fallout: Economists project sharp decline in remittance

Expats send Tk 3,756cr in first half of April
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24 Apr 2020 08:35:59 | Update: 24 Apr 2020 13:50:40
Covid-19 fallout: Economists project sharp decline in remittance
Representational image

Bangladeshi expatriates have remitted Tk 3,756 crore in first 16 days of April despite bleak projection of World Bank and economists on remittances.

The World Bank has projected a fall by 22 percent in the inflow of remittance in 2020 due to the economic crisis as a result of Covid-19 fallout in respective host countries in the South Asian region.

The WB made the projection of fall in a report on remittance released on Wednesday, in a sharp contrast to the remittance growth by over 6 percent last year.

In the first 16 days of this month, expatriates have sent over 44 crore US dollars in remittance. The average annual remittance for the last five years (2015-2019) is 15 billion US dollars and over 18 million in 2019.

Local economists and bankers agreed to the WB prediction on fall in remittance.

They are afraid that the volume of remittance may decline drastically due to the pandemic-inflicted economies around the world. 

They suggest Bangladeshi expatriates should be included in state-announced packages which amount to nearly one lakh crore taka.  

Economists want the government to put its emphasis on sharpening the skills of the jobseekers intending to go abroad. 

Planning Commission Member of General Economic Division Professor Dr Shamsul Alam said, “It seems difficult to imagine the magnitude of the fall in remittance inflow.”

Economic Adviser to Former Caretaker Government Dr AB Mirza Azizul Islam said most countries in the Middle East may not hire Bangladeshi expatriates in the coming days because coronavirus pandemic and fall in oil prices sparked off the economic downturn in the Middle East.

Therefore, the government will have to take a strong diplomatic maneuver to negotiate with these countries, he said.

Former Managing Director of Meghna Bank Nurul Amin said, “If the worldwide lockdown continues for the next two weeks, it will surely impact negatively on our remittance inflow”.

He said, “In the Mideastcountries like Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar local people will not beremovedfrom their jobs, but migrant workers will be. He said the situation will get worse if oil prices continue to go down.

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"Our diplomats have a lot of work to do now to protect the jobs of the Bangladeshi expatriates during coronavirus pandemic", Nurul Amin added.   

As per the WB report, remittance could nosedive to $1400 crore in 2020 in Bangladesh, which was $1830 crore in 2019.

But despite the outbreak of coronavirus around the world, Bangladeshis living outside the country continue to send remittances.

In the first 16 days of this month, expatriates have sent $ 44crore 20 lakh in remittance and in local currency the amount is Tk 3,756 crore. And in March, 128 crore 68 lakh dollars were remitted by migrant workers.

According to the Bangladesh Bank data, inward remittance came to Bangladesh from Middle Eastern countries amounts to $ 634.58 crore, in local currency Tk 54,000 crore during 2019-20 fiscal year.

The Bureau of Manpower, Employment, and Training (BMET) data show Bangladesh has sent workers to 168 countries. As of November 2019, the total number of Bangladeshi workers going abroad was 604,006 while it was 734,181 in 2018.

 

 

 

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