GDP growth won’t exceed 2.5pc, predicts CPD

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has estimated that Bangladesh’s GDP growth won’t exceed 2.5 percent this fiscal year due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The think tank made the prediction during a virtual press briefing on the “State of the Bangladesh Economy in FY2019-20 and Budget Challenges” on Sunday.

Senior Research Fellow of CPD Towfiqul Islam Khan said the coronavirus situation has hit hard the country’s economy since the end of March.

Among the 15 sectors counted in the gross domestic product (GDP) in Bangladesh, five sectors are severely hit by the pandemic. However, the agricultural sector has not been affected that way.

Towfiqul Islam said the manufacturing and construction sectors are facing major problems and the prolonged closure of hotels, restaurants and transport will have a negative impact on GDP.

Overall, the GDP growth cannot be more than 2.5 percent, he predicted.

"If we can achieve 2.5 percent growth, that is enough in this pandemic situation," he observed, adding that many countries, for instance, neighbouring India, are moving towards negative growth at this time.

At present, we must give priority to saving human lives, without putting too much emphasis on growth, he opined, adding that growth certainly cannot be the biggest regulator this time around.

Earlier, the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) had all predicted GDP growth of less than 4 percent for Bangladesh.

sr/at