Here’s what to know about former Trump’s second impeachment trial

Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday faces the start of his second impeachment trial, an uphill battle for Democrats determined to prove him guilty in the wake of the deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol.

Despite the unprecedented circumstances, the unanswered logistical questions regarding the trial and the uncertain political ramifications, experts see acquittal as the likely outcome of the trial.

The House impeachment managers, led by Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., nevertheless aim to convince two thirds of the divided Senate to convict Trump of inciting the Jan. 6 invasion.

But their path is filled with obstacles, including Republicans who largely doubt the legality of the trial itself and a Democratic president, Joe Biden, who’s eager for Congress to get cracking on passing his ambitious legislative agenda.

Trump is the only commander in chief in U.S. history to be impeached twice. In 2019, he was impeached on two articles, abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, over his efforts to pressure Ukraine to investigate Biden and his son Hunter Biden. He was acquitted by the Republican-led Senate in February 2020.

Trump will have been out of office for nearly three weeks by the time the current trial kicks off. Ensconced at his home in Florida, the one-term Republican president still commands the support of swaths of the party, and the loyalty of many of its representatives.

“I’m about 95% certain that it’s going to end in acquittal,” said Chris Haynes, a political science professor at the University of New Haven. “I just don’t think there’s 17 Republicans that will join the Democrats in convicting Trump.”

Here’s what to know about the upcoming trial:

Why was Trump impeached?The Democrat-led House of Representatives impeached Trump on Jan. 13, a week before he left office, on one article of “incitement of insurrection.”

The article accuses Trump, who held a rally outside the White House shortly before the riot began, of making statements that “encouraged — and foreseeably resulted in — lawless action at the Capitol.”

Trump at that rally had urged a crowd of his supporters to march to the Capitol, where a joint session of Congress had convened to confirm Biden’s electoral victory. Trump repeatedly pressured then-Vice President Mike Pence, who was presiding over the event, to challenge the Electoral College results.

“If you don’t fight like hell you’re not going to have a country anymore,” Trump told the crowd. Many of those listeners marched directly to the Capitol, where a mob broke through barricades and lines of police officers and forced lawmakers to evacuate their chambers.

Five people died, including a Capitol police officer.

The rally came after Trump made other attempts to reverse states’ election results, the article of impeachment notes. It also followed Trump falsely insisting for weeks that he had won the election against Biden, while spreading an array of unfounded conspiracies alleging widespread election fraud.