UN draft report forecasts worse economic impacts of climate change

Climate change is already taking a toll on the global economy, and forecasts predict worse to come by mid-century, according to a draft report by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, seen exclusively by AFP.

Here are some of the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) report on economic impacts:

Global
Climate-boosted extreme weather events -- cyclones, droughts, flooding -- have already sapped both short- and long-term economic growth, especially in developing countries.

- Average global economic damage due to floods over the last several decades has averaged $50 billion (42 billion euros) to $350 billion annually, depending on methods of calculation

- In a worst-case scenario, if Earth's temperature rises four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, global GDP could decline 10 to 23 per cent compared to a world without warming

- Expected damages for 136 major coastal cities were calculated at between $1.6 trillion and $3.2 trillion by 2050 in a worst-case scenario without adaptation

- Storm surges enhanced by sea-level rise threaten more than 40 per cent of coastal nuclear power plants worldwide

- Nearly 14 per cent of the world's sandy beaches face severe erosion by 2050 under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario

Africa
Heat and scarce rain are adding obstacles to Africa's development path.

- Per capita GDP for Africa would have been nearly 14 per cent higher over the period 1991-2010 without manmade global warming

- A decline in rainfall from 1960 to 2000 -- attributed in part to climate change -- widened the GDP gap between Africa and the rest of the developing world by 15 to 40 per cent

- Adaptation costs in Africa are projected to increase tens of billions of dollars per year if global warming exceeds two degrees Celsius

- Capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius rather than two degrees would increase per capita GDP five per cent across nearly all African countries by mid-century, and up to 20 per cent by 2100

Asia-Pacific
Rising sea levels are threatening to cause havoc across Asia-Pacific, from Bangladesh to China to Australia.

- In South Asia, water-related impacts of climate change are expected to reduce GDP up to 2.5 per cent by 2050 if global warming exceeds two degrees Celsius

- Asia could experience direct losses of nearly $170 billion with half-a-metre of sea-level rise, and damages will be concentrated in China. The IPCC projects sea level rise up to 1.1 metres by 2100

- In Bangladesh, one-third of power plants may need to be relocated by 2030 due to sea-level rise

- Climate-induced loss in Australian agricultural and labour productivity could exceed $14 billion by 2030 and $159 billion by 2050

Elsewhere
Melting Arctic ice and other climate calamities loom large over Russia, Europe and the United States.

- Damages from multiple climate hazards to transport, energy, industry and social infrastructure in Europe could triple by 2030, and increase tenfold by 2100

- In Russia, nearly 20 per cent of critical infrastructure will be damaged by degraded permafrost by 2050

- Under a worst-case emissions scenario, hundreds of billions of dollars in annual economic damages in the United States are anticipated by 2090

- By mid-century, regardless of emissions scenario, permafrost thaw across the Arctic region is projected to damage nearly 70 per cent of infrastructure