China sifts opportunity from US-Afghan project

China’s overtures to the Taliban indicate a bid to extract maximum benefit from the dramatic collapse of the US project in Afghanistan.

But Beijing will remain watchful of the hardliners now running the show in Kabul, especially as Afghanistan borders China’s eastern Xinjiang province, home to the Muslim-majority Uyghurs, analysts say.

Around a fortnight before the Islamists seized power in a lightning offensive that stunned the world, Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted a Taliban delegation in Beijing.

And just one day after the Taliban entered Kabul, China said it was ready to deepen “friendly and cooperative” relations with Afghanistan. While Beijing says it has no desire to direct any future political settlement in Kabul, it appears to have scented opportunity to press its Belt and Road interests as the US pulls out.

Pragmatism prevails

As power transitions to the Taliban, Beijing has a few key demands, said Hua Po, an independent political analyst in Beijing. 

“The first is to protect China’s investments and ensure security of Chinese nationals,” he says.

“Second, it is necessary to cut off relations with East Turkestan (Xinjiang) separatists and not let them return to Xinjiang.”

But pragmatism appears to be prevailing over ideology towards a group whose religious doctrines have in the past left China queasy.

And the Taliban appear to have understood that if they want good relations with China, they will have to leave China’s Muslims -- whose plight is a rallying cause for Islamists worldwide -- alone.

A Taliban spokesman, Mohammad Naeem, has vowed that “Afghanistan’s soil would not be used against any country’s security.”

In China, state media has buffed up the potential of driving major economic schemes under the new regime, from the Aynak Copper Mine project -- Afghanistan’s largest copper deposit, and the world’s second-largest -- to the northern oil fields of Faryab and Sar-i-pul.

Beijing-backed firms have already pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into rights to mine and build, but extreme insecurity has iced most of the plans.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s generous lithium deposits -- the country has been dubbed the ‘Saudi Arabia of lithium’-- have manufacturers of electric vehicles which run on the mineral licking their lips. And China is the worlds largest EV maker.

The Taliban, who stand to benefit hugely from building ties with Beijing, “look forward to China’s participation in the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters on Monday.