Effort to limit temperature rise to 1.5C insufficient

Current efforts are insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius by the end of the century, the target was set under the Paris agreement in 2015, according to a new report of UN Climate Change.

The report, however, has found some positive moves and ray of hope. The report shows countries are bending the curve of global greenhouse gas emissions downward, said a press release of UN Climate Change.

According to the report, the combined climate pledges of 193 Parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for around 2.5 degree Celsius of warming by the end of the century.

The report shows current commitments will increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. This is an improvement over last year’s assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions by 13.7% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.

Last year’s analysis showed projected emissions would continue to increase beyond 2030. This year’s analysis shows that while emissions will no longer increase after 2030, the countries are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade.

“The downward trend in emissions expected by 2030 shows that nations have made some progress this year,” said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change.

“We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5 degrees Celsius world. To keep this goal alive, national governments need to strengthen their climate action plans now and implement them in the next eight years” Stiell added.

The latest science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released earlier this year uses 2019 as a baseline, indicating that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030.

UN Climate Change analysed the climate action plans – known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – of 193 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including 24 updated or new NDCs submitted after the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26) up until 23 September 2022. Taken together, the plans cover 94.9% of total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019.

Bangladesh submitted updated NDC

Bangladesh submitted its first reduction plan to UNFCCC on 25 September 2015, and accordingly formulated the NDC Implementation Roadmap and Action Plan in 2018.

Bangladesh proposed for 12 million tonnes (5%) unconditional reduction in GHG emission from Business as Usual Scenario (BAU) by 2030 and a further 24 million tonnes (10%) conditional reduction with support from the international community taking the base year 2011.

For the base year, Bangladesh’s total GHG emission accounts for 169.05 million tonnes CO2. For the target year, total GHG emission will account for 409.41 million tonnes of CO2 under the BAU scenario by 2030.

Bangladesh submitted its update NDCs in September last year. The updated NDC covers some other sectors as first NDC covered only three sector.

According to the updated NDC, in the unconditional scenario, GHG emissions would be reduced by 27.56 million tonnes or 6.73% below BAU in 2030 in the respective sectors. In the conditional scenario, GHG emissions would be reduced by 61.9 million tonnes CO2 or 15.12% below BAU in 2030 in the respective sectors.