No return to business as usual

The world will not return to “business as usual” following the pandemic alongside rocketing gas prices and forced migration in the wake of the Ukraine war, Europe’s development bank forecast Tuesday.

Such a coming together of events -- including also supply-chain disruptions and extreme weather -- “would be challenging enough for governments and firms if it was spread over a decade or more”, noted Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

“And yet, all of this has happened in the space of just three years, with the prospect of more turbulence to come. It is clear that there will be no going back to the ‘business as usual’ of the pre-pandemic period.”

Her forecast was contained in the 2022-23 EBRD Transition Report, titled “Business Unusual”, which also highlighted firms hit by record levels of debt.

It said that “zombie firms”, owing to artificial financial life support, were in fact dragging down healthier rivals.