UN’s global disaster alert systems goal faces uphill climb

How can anyone seek shelter from a natural disaster they don’t even know is coming? Last year the United Nations called for every person on the planet to be covered by early warning systems by 2027 -- but months into the effort it is becoming clear that the project will require more data and expertise.

With a relatively low price tag of $3.1 billion, the UN’s plan hopes to implement the simple principle of early warning systems: assess risks using meteorological data, forecast impending problems using modelling, prepare populations ahead of time, and send out alerts to those expected to be impacted.

But building out those steps poses unique issues at each turn, according to those involved in the effort, many of whom are gathered this week in New York for a historic UN conference on water-related crises.

In Tajikistan, 100 years of weather data exist only on paper, chair of the country’s environmental protection committee, Bahodur Sheralizoda said.

Digitizing this data could provide “more precise weather forecasts” or be applied to climate modelling, he added.

“With the small investments, we can have really big impact in the long run.”

To help fill the data gap, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is also hoping to deploy weather stations made from 3D printers around the world, said the agency’s chief scientist Sarah Kapnick.

When it comes to analyzing the meteorological data and predicting future weather events, there is also a lack of local expertise, said Stefan Uhlenbrook, director of hydrology, water and cryosphere at the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

“You need local capacity to run the local models,” he told AFP.

Some help should be coming from NOAA, which Kapnick said has plans to “train local climate forecasters and leaders.”

After risks are identified, getting those alerts to remote populations poses possibly the biggest hurdle.

“To reach the last mile... and then to get them acting and prepared is a big challenge,” said Uhlenbrook.

This is where the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), a WMO partner in the field, comes in.