Sunday, April 28, 2024
Most Asian markets joined a global sell-off Thursday on fresh worries the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again, while China's economic woes continued to shred traders' nerves.
While minutes from the US central bank's July meeting showed two decision-makers were against lifting borrowing costs, they also revealed that "most participants" saw a significant risk that price increases would persist and could require further monetary tightening.
The remarks dealt a blow to investors who had hoped rates were now at their peak following a string of data indicating inflation was falling and the jobs market softening.
And there also remains debate inside the Fed about the next move, with officials giving sharply differing views, though the bank has said it will make decisions based on incoming data.
Futures traders assign a probability of close to 90 per cent that the Fed will stand pat at its September meeting, according to data from CME Group, though there is a growing belief more hikes are down the line.
All three main indexes on Wall Street sank, with tech firms — which are susceptible to higher rates — acting as a major drag, while 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2008 at the height of the global financial crisis.
"The Fed has no choice but to keep it up until they are convinced that inflationary expectations are quashed," said Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers.
"Doing otherwise risks some of the embers reigniting. Even though two governors favoured keeping rates steady in July, it is important to keep in mind that a pause is not a pivot."
The dour mood in New York and Europe filtered through to Asia, where most major markets were deep in the red.
However, Hong Kong and Shanghai saw small gains in bargain-buying after a run of losses.
London, Paris and Frankfurt all joined Asia as they fell at the open.
Bets on further hikes have pushed the dollar to an eight-month high versus the yen, raising the prospect of Japanese authorities intervening to support their currency.
The selling was intensified by worries about China as authorities struggle to revive a stuttering post-Covid recovery.
Fresh figures Wednesday pointed to a second month of falling new home prices, underscoring deep problems in the property sector that observers fear could spill over into the domestic and global economy.
That came a day after news that growth in retail sales and industrial production had slowed.
Leaders this week pledged to boost consumption at home and lift the private sector, though there were no details. Similarly, promises of help for the property sector and other key areas of the economy have not been followed up with anything concrete.
"Investors looking for more aggressive support from policymakers amid soft activity have been disappointed as the recent incremental measures haven't been sufficient to restore confidence," said Taylor Nugent at National Australia Bank.
US officials have also raised concerns about a possible spillover of China's troubles, with Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo saying they were proving to be "a headwind — not just to the US economy, but to the global economy".
That came after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday that Beijing's issues were a "risk factor" for the United States.
