Boeing raises jet demand forecast on pandemic recovery

Boeing revised up long-term demand forecasts on Tuesday, as a snapback in commercial air travel in domestic markets like the United States tempers the more gloomy industry predictions seen at the height of coronavirus lockdowns last year.

The rosier view underpins moves by the aerospace giant to prepare for growth in travel demand and military services, even as its own ability to respond to the brighter outlook remains hampered by industrial delays and the lingering 737 MAX crisis.

The U.S. planemaker, which dominates jet sales together with Europe’s Airbus, forecast 43,610 commercial jet deliveries over the next 20 years worth $7.2 trillion, an increase of 500 units from the 43,110 projected a year ago.

On a shorter 10-year view, which is more sensitive to the severe fallout on airlines from the COVID-19 pandemic, Boeing sees 19,330 deliveries, up from last year’s forecast of 18,350.

The 10-year projection is 6 per cent  shy of the forecast it published in 2019, but the drop from pre-crisis levels has narrowed from 11 per cent a year ago.

“One of the strongest reasons for confidence is how quickly we have seen a bounce-back in domestic travel in the last 12 months,” Boeing Chief Strategy Officer Marc Allen told reporters.

Boeing sees domestic flying at pre-crisis levels in 2022 followed by regional traffic in 2023 and international in 2024.

Demand for airliners is seen as a bellwether for the wider economy. Boeing raised its assumption for average annual global economic growth to 2.7 per cent from 2.5 per cent from last year’s forecast.