EU chief Ursula von der Leyen will face a make-or-break vote on Thursday when the European Parliament will decide whether to hand her another term helming the bloc's executive arm.
The German ex-defence minister has led the European Commission since 2019, the first woman in the role. She has weathered several crises like the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine -- and also faced many controversies.
Dealing a blow to von der Leyen a day before the vote, a top EU court ruled she failed to be transparent enough about coronavirus vaccine contracts.
But her supporters believe she will comfortably clinch the vote by secret ballot after holding weeks of negotiations with lawmakers to push them to back her.
Her detractors insist there is deep frustration with von der Leyen and point to the fact that she has a shaky majority since she won the vote in 2019 with only nine extra votes from MEPs.
Von der Leyen needs at least 361 votes in the 720-seat parliament, which is holding its first sitting in the French city of Strasbourg since EU-wide elections in June.
This will likely be von der Leyen's only shot since her candidacy was already hotly debated by EU leaders in June.
If the 65-year-old fails to get a majority, the 27 leaders will be expected to put forward a new name.
But growing political uncertainty worldwide and a potential second Donald Trump presidency across the Atlantic, with all the America First implications that would bring, are weighing on lawmakers' minds.
Under EU treaties, the parliament must support the candidate or reject them, in which case the bloc's leaders would have one month to put forward another nominee.
If von der Leyen secures a second term, she will have a growing list of problems to tackle including war in Ukraine and the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East as well as the EU's trade tensions with China.
"It would be a disaster if she does not win the vote," a parliamentary source told AFP. "Who would we pick instead?"
'Not a blank cheque'
Von der Leyen belongs to the biggest political group in the parliament, the conservative European People's Party (EPP), which is in a centrist coalition with the Socialists and Democrats and the liberal Renew Europe groups.
In theory, that coalition has the numbers to get von der Leyen over the line.
The expectations are that some lawmakers within those groups will vote against her but she will also pick up some votes from Greens and the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists that will seal the deal.
A Renew lawmaker said voting for von der Leyen "doesn't mean giving her a blank cheque".
She added: "What we want is for her to continue to move forward and deliver, in line with our agenda."
The Greens want to ensure von der Leyen remains committed to ambitious EU goals to reduce carbon emissions in the teeth of opposition from many right-wing parties.
"Obviously, if we are part of the majority and we vote in favour, then there is going to be something that we ask in return," said Greens co-chief, Terry Reintke.
If she is elected, von der Leyen will have to get straight to work choosing her next cabinet of commissioners, known as a "college", to work on EU policy in key areas.
Back in 2019, von der Leyen's name came out of the blue when she was tapped for the top job, following a deal between Paris and Berlin.
Months later, when Europe was brought to its knees by the Covid-19 pandemic, von der Leyen steered a groundbreaking 750-billion-euro ($820 billion) economic recovery plan.
But it was that same health crisis that has remained a thorn in her side.
Questions linger over her actions as she allegedly kept secret and deleted text messages with the boss of Pfizer over vaccine purchases.
