A recent IPCC WG3 report has highlighted the current trends of emissions, projected levels of future warming, and how to transition to a low carbon economy in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the year 2100.
The report, published on Monday, shows how transformative systems can ensure a safer climate and a sustainable economy, whereas it also makes this glaringly evident that we are off-track, with significant hurdles to change.
Business as usual, damaging land management, fossil fuel subsidies, and the ongoing construction of coal, oil, and gas infrastructure are obstructing the well-planned and widescale transition society sorely needs.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 3 (IPCC WG3) report is certain that there is a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to limit warming to 1.5°C by 2100.
Human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached 59 GtCO2eq in 2019, the highest level since 1990, primarily driven by fossil fuels and industry. About 34 per cent of human emissions came from the energy supply sector, 24 per cent from industry, 22 per cent from agriculture, forestry and land use, 15 per cent from transport and 6 per cent from buildings.
To achieve 1.5°C, the world must reduce annual CO2 emissions by 48 per cent by 2030, and reach net zero by 2050, while reducing methane emissions by a third by 2030 and almost halving them by 2050.
Moreover, the world's rich countries are overwhelming the high emitters. The countries that emit the least continue to be the most vulnerable to climate impacts.
Since AR5 WGIII report and Paris Agreement, climate change has shot up the agenda of politicians and the media, but it is still far from gaining the level of attention and action the scale of the climate crisis requires.
Immediate, deep GHG emissions cuts and systemic, transformative actions are needed to deliver a 1.5°C world.
Net-zero government and corporate pledges are booming, but need a stronger emphasis on rapid, near-term action in order to be consistent with a pathway to 1.5°C. The scale of the task is vast and transformative, but possible with tech options already available.
Moreover, the report clearly shows near-term dates for the stranding of fossil fuel assets in a 1.5°C world, with recommendations on how the use of oil and gas, in particular, should be limited, with CCS to mitigate emissions from remaining installations.
More investment in renewable energy is needed, and no more in fossil fuels
Estimates of the cost of mitigation for the low carbon transition tend to be overestimated, as they have generally not been offset by corresponding declines in polluting infrastructure investment, or the benefits of mitigation in terms of avoided climate impacts and reduced cost of adaptation.
